The UK government is testing out a new stance on Brexit, but this isn't equivalent to a change in direction. The adjustment is mostly in tone.
Previously, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves described Britain's separation from Europe as a permanent feature of the national situation, difficult to manage perhaps, but inescapable. Now, they are willing to acknowledge it as a serious problem.
Speaking at a regional investment conference recently, the finance minister listed Brexit together with the COVID-19 and spending cuts as factors behind persistent economic lethargy. She reiterated this perspective during an IMF meeting in the US capital, noting that the national efficiency issue has been compounded by the way in which the Britain departed from the EU.
This was a precisely formulated declaration, attributing harm not to Brexit itself but to its execution; faulting the officials who handled it, not the public who supported it. This distinction will be crucial when the budget is unveiled soon. The aim is to assign certain economic problems to the deal negotiated by Boris Johnson without seeming to disrespect the aspirations of leave voters.
For those who value evidence, the financial debate is largely settled. An independent fiscal watchdog estimates that Britain's long-term productivity is 4% lower than it would have been with ongoing European partnership.
In addition to the costs of trade friction, there has been a ongoing drop in corporate spending due to governmental uncertainty and regulatory ambiguity. Additionally the lost potential of government energy being diverted toward a task for which little planning had been made, since supporters had thoroughly evaluated the real-world requirements of achieving it.
With evidence being clear, officials find it hard to stay impartial. The Bank of England governor informed last week's IMF meeting that he holds no position on Brexit then stated that its impact on growth will be adverse for the coming years.
He predicted a mild corrective rebalancing over the long term, which provides scant relief to a treasury head who must address a significant revenue shortfall soon. Taxes are set to rise, and the chancellor wants the public to recognize that Brexit is a partial cause.
This admission is worth making because it is true. This doesn't ensure political benefit from expressing it. The same reality was apparent when the administration presented its earlier fiscal plan and during the national vote, which Labour fought while avoiding the certainty of higher levies.
At this stage, with the government being established but unpopular, explaining economic hardship sounds like making excuses to numerous constituents. There might be more benefit in faulting the Tories for all problems if they were the only alternative and a credible threat. The usual ruling party tactic in a two-party system is to claim cleanup duty the opponent's errors and warn against their return. The rise of Reform UK complicates matters.
Ideological gaps between the main opponents are small, but the electorate observe interpersonal conflict more than shared beliefs. Those attracted to Nigel Farage due to lost faith in the system—especially on border policy—do not view the two parties as similar entities. One party has a record of permitting entry, while Reform does not—a difference Farage will repeatedly emphasize.
The Reform leader is less eager to discuss Brexit, in part since it is a legacy jointly owned with Tories and also because there are few benefits to showcase. If challenged, he may argue that the goal was sabotaged by flawed implementation, but even that defense admits failure. Easier to change the subject.
This explains why the government feels more confident raising the issue. The prime minister's recent party conference speech marked a turning point. Earlier, he had discussed UK-EU relations in bureaucratic language, focusing on a relationship reset that targeted uncontentious obstacles like customs checks while steering clear of the sensitive topics at the heart of the Brexit aftermath.
In his speech, Starmer stopped short of old remainer rhetoric, but he suggested familiarity with previous assertions. He referenced "false promises on the side of that bus"—referring to leave campaign pledges about NHS funding—in the framework of "dubious solutions" promoted by politicians whose easy fixes exacerbate the country's challenges.
Leaving Europe was equated with Covid as traumas faced by ordinary people in recent years. Likening EU exit to an illness signals a tougher tone, even if the economic measures being negotiated in Brussels remain unchanged.
The objective is to connect the Reform leader to a well-known example of deceptive campaigning, suggesting he is unreliable; that he capitalizes on frustration and creates conflict but cannot manage effectively.
The removal of local representatives from Reform's local government team supports that narrative. Recorded videos of a online meeting showed internal squabbling and recrimination, highlighting the difficulties inexperienced figures face when delivering public services on tight finances—far tougher than campaigning about cutting waste or managing borders.
This line of attack is effective for the government, but it depends on the administration's own performance being good enough that electing Reform seems a risky gamble. Moreover, this is a message for a future campaign that may not occur until 2029. If the leadership wish to be seen as antidotes to Faragism, they must show meanwhile with a positively defined agenda of their own.
Restrictions exist to what can be achieved with a change in tone, and the clock is ticking. How much easier to argue now that EU exit is harmful and Farage a fraud if they had said so earlier. How many more options might they have? Do they merit praise for admitting it now when alternate justifications are exhausted? Certainly. But the issue with reaching the obvious conclusion via the longest path is that people question the procrastination. Starting from the truth is faster.
A passionate home cook and food writer from Ontario, sharing her love for Canadian cuisine and family-friendly meals.