Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average count of per-day killings each month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder data might not indicate better national safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that have been recorded in these past months is extremely notable,” the President said, noting that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an apparently steeper drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was also an issue because it may mask days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.